resources, including those of banking, are scarce. That means you have to choose to assign them to one thing or another. If the decree requires raising capital requirements should be controlled to the extent any lending, since by its very existence in the balance sheet entities should reserve a certain amount to cover their risks. That is, more credits, you need more volume of capital.
Not only is a view shared in the financial industry and among analysts. The European Central Bank (ECB) in its latest monthly report warned Spain that the recapitalization of the savings involved "the risk of transitory negative effects in credit flows to the real economy." The reason to fear it dry funding is for the progress in implementing the requirements of Basel III agreement.
When the Committee of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel III established the rules last fall with higher capital requirements, granted to banks in exchange for a long period of adaptation, "compatible with the economic recovery." So that was the argument that the Bank of Spain used to inform banks and our country seven years adaptation was within generous enough not to use the new rules as an excuse to not activate the flow of new credits .
But after the decree, with the shortening of deadlines , banks are forced to reduce funding families and businesses.
The concern for the real sectors of the economy is not only that, but the expected rising credits granted as well as new terms on refinancing.
This trend has been observed in recent months, more important in lending to small and medium enterprises, which have less bargaining power with the lender.
According to the Bank of Spain, the rates applied in January SMEs have reached 4.59 percent, levels not seen since 2008, while loans to larger companies support lower rates than in the past month of January stood at 3.72 percent. Forecasts of a turnaround are linked more to a sustained rebound in the English economy than the will, forged by decree, financial institutions, more focused on their own survival than on expanding your business.
Customers also will notice another pernicious effect on their pockets. The interbank rates are discounting for weeks a rate hike by the European Central Bank. The first upward movement is expected in April as Jean Claude Trichet warned after the last meeting of the monetary authority.
At the end of the year, make forecasts that from 1 percent today the price of money could be put between 2.25 and 2.50 percent.
This means more expensive shares on the one hand, by increasing tariffs to be charged entities and, second, by rising interest rates.
From shortage approaching the development of speech and figures of the past months. As reported by the Bank of Spain in January, new loans for SMEs down a 13.87 percent over January 2010.
In December, the downward trend is the same, with a decrease in new loans of 16 percent. And if we go back a month until November, the cut is 12.7 percent.
After the new regulations there is no reason to expect a new and different deep cuts in lending to SMEs.
According to experts, to see a revival of the flow of loans, you must have a healthy banking system and trouble-free external financing conditions have not yet.
To accompany this condition also the economy should have entered a phase of sustained recovery, we are away. Until this occurs, the tap will cerrado.
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